The Tour de France rarely follows a script, and after the chaos and speed of the Lille opener, stage two promises to stir things up again – this time with a punchier finale that looks set to remove many of the pure sprinters from contention.
Jasper Philipsen claimed the yellow jersey in classic style on stage one, winning from a reduced bunch sprint after a nervy and at times messy day, but it’s unlikely the Belgian will keep it without a fight. The 208.9km route from Lauwin-Planque to Boulogne-sur-Mer gets progressively more lumpy, culminating in three categorised climbs in the final 30km. That includes the short, sharp Côte d’Outreau – 800m at 8.8% – which tops out just 5.3km from the finish.
The coast will add another layer of uncertainty. Wind off the Channel has split the race in the past around here and there’s a chance of crosswinds doing the same again. GC riders and puncheurs will need to be switched on. Any hesitation could see gaps open, or worse – someone caught on the wrong side of a split.
What’s on offer
Date: Sunday, 6th July
Distance: 209.1km
Start/Finish: Lauwin-Planque – Boulogne-sur-Mer
Sprints: Énocq (km 154.6)
Climbs:
- Côte de Cavron-Saint-Martin (cat. 4, km 104.3)
- Côte du Haut Pichot (cat. 3, km 179.3)
- Côte de Saint-Étienne-au-Mont (cat. 3, km 200.4)
- Côte d’Outreau (cat. 4, km 203.8)
A hilly finale and no place to hide
The flat roads of the early stage will allow the breakaway some rope, but the second half tightens up considerably. The climb to Côte de Cavron-Saint-Martin (cat. 4) will test the legs before the road kicks up again with increasing severity. From 30km to go, the punchy ramps arrive thick and fast: the Côte du Haut Pichot (1.1km at 9.4%), followed by the Côte de Saint-Étienne-au-Mont (1km at 10.6%), and then the final test on the Côte d’Outreau.
If the tempo is high – and it will be – many sprinters will simply be distanced, and team leaders may look to use this moment to put rivals under pressure. The run-in is twisty, exposed, and tactical, and positioning will be everything heading into the final climb and descent.
Who’s in the mix?
With the gradients coming late, it opens the door to punchy riders and even some GC men. Mathieu van der Poel is among the stage favourites according to the bookmakers, with this sort of terrain tailor-made for him if he’s given freedom from lead-out duties. But it’s not just him. Tadej Pogačar could well fancy it too, with Wout van Aert, Thibau Nys, and Axel Laurance all serious contenders for a late attack or reduced sprint.
Jonathan Milan might be able to hang on, depending on the pace and how hard it’s raced, while Philipsen himself has proven he can handle short climbs when he’s on form. Expect Lidl-Trek to try and shepherd Milan into position, while Alpecin will hedge their bets between Philipsen and Van der Poel.
A breakaway has a slim chance if the big teams mark each other out and the climbs are used more to drop sprinters than launch attacks, but it’s more likely we see a reduced bunch sprint or a late solo move off the final climb. Either way, the yellow jersey is at risk, and whoever wins will almost certainly take it.
Prediction
This is the kind of finish that Mathieu van der Poel relishes. Short, steep climbs to sap the legs, technical roads along the coast, and a reduced bunch sprint that rewards timing and power. If Jasper Philipsen is distanced on the final ascents, Van der Poel will have the freedom to go all-in for the stage, and he rarely misses when the conditions suit.
