Jonas Vingegaard rolls into the 2025 Vuelta a España as the undisputed bookmakers’ favourite. Odds from the main online betting sites on Scs.ie show at Betfred, he’s pinned at a sharp 1/3, while BoyleSports and Bet365 offer 2/7 odds, suggesting that, in the eyes of the market, without Tadej Pogačar in the race, Vingegaard is the man to beat. Yet nothing is guaranteed on these roads.
Calm Determination Beneath the Surface
There’s a quiet intensity about him this time. He’s said all the right things, his climbing legs are there, his Tour de France form was solid as he took his fifth top-two finish in the race, and he doesn’t feel the need to make a scene this time as a result. But beneath that calm, though, there’s a sense of controlled expectation. This is a rider with something to prove, one who is silently determined.
The Vuelta: A Race Built on Chaos
Still, a Grand Tour is a different beast. The Vuelta, in particular, thrives on chaos, what with its steep gradients, swirling winds, steep climbs and rapid tactical shifts that can wreck even the best-laid plans in a single stage.
Form and Momentum After the Tour
But Vingegaard isn’t riding unprepared. He enters post-Tour with form on his side, having secured yet another top-two finish. He may not have matched the peak of his 2022–23 dominance, but he was sharper than most expected and he looked ready to fight.
Photo Credit: GettyTeam Visma | Lease a Bike’s Loyal Armada
The strength behind him is equally as important. Visma–Lease a Bike arrive brimming with intent: Sepp Kuss, Matteo Jorgenson, Wilco Kelderman are all loyal, disciplined lieutenants.
Kuss, the reigning Vuelta champion, is back to play a support role, underscoring how tight and adaptable this squad is. The message is clear: this year, everything operates for Vingegaard.
Photo Credit: GettyUAE’s Dual Threat: Ayuso and Almeida
But threats loom. UAE Team Emirates – now co-sponsored by XRG – counters with two challengers: João Almeida and Juan Ayuso.
Though priced as outsiders – roughly 11/2 at Betfred; Bet365 offers 9/2 for Ayuso, 7/1 for Almeida – their collective threat may be underestimated.
Ayuso, just 22, already brings two Vuelta podiums. His aggressive instincts and talent on steep terrain could make him dangerous here. Almeida is more even-keeled – solid in time trials and reliable over three weeks. Still, their dual leadership poses tactical questions: can they ride 21 stages in tandem, or will one undermine the other?
Photo Credit: GettyDark Horses Waiting in the Shadows
Beyond these favourites, dark horses linger. Giulio Ciccone sits around 28/1 – perhaps not a consistent GC threat, but enough of a danger to upset the leaders. Ben O’Connor, Egan Bernal, Jai Hindley are also all capable riders whose presence could reshape the race.
However, none come close to Vingegaard’s package: elite climbing, a competent time trial, and a team that plans every detail. What’s missing is momentum and that quiet confidence only a win can bring.
Photo Credit: GettyThe Pogačar-Shaped Gap
Meanwhile, Pogačar’s absence looms large. His decision to skip the Vuelta breaks the spell of their rivalry and hands Vingegaard a rare chance to reclaim narrative control – not just by winning, but by reasserting himself as the gold standard. The story here isn’t just about victory – it’s about returning to form, to that platform where timing and dominance intersect.
More Than Odds: A Battle of Grit and Endurance
Bookmakers believe he’ll seize this moment. The odds are backing him to do so, but in cycling, belief, no matter how justified, can only carry you so far.
Once the flag drops, it’s about grit, weather, momentum, and who still has the legs after 3,153 unforgiving kilometres.
Vingegaard might not be saying much right now. But the expectations? They’re deafening.
