Men’s Itzulia Basque Country 2026 looks set to be one of the strongest stage-race fields of the spring, and the route gives that field every chance to split apart properly. The race opens with a hilly time trial in Bilbao before running through a demanding week packed with climbing, technical roads and the kind of repeated accelerations that make this race so distinctive.
That is always true of Itzulia to some degree, but this year’s route looks especially unforgiving. There is enough climbing to expose weaker days, enough technical terrain to punish poor positioning, and enough variety across the stages that the overall battle should stay alive deep into the race. If you want the wider context before the racing begins, ProCyclingUK’s full start list for 2026 Itzulia Basque Country Tour and Itzulia Basque Country 2026 team-by-team guide work as useful companion pieces.
Photo Credit: GettyIsaac del Toro starts as the most convincing all-round pick
Del Toro looks like the most complete contender coming in. He has already shown this spring that he can handle the pressure of a major week-long race, and that matters here because Itzulia rarely rewards one spectacular day on its own. More often, it goes to the rider who can stay sharp, composed and efficient right across the week.
That makes Del Toro especially interesting for this edition. He is explosive enough for the short, steep climbs that shape the Basque roads, but he is not just a punchy rider. He also looks increasingly comfortable managing a stage race as a whole, and that is often the real dividing line in Itzulia. Riders can win stages here through aggression and timing. Winning the overall usually requires repeated sharpness without one costly lapse.
On current form, he feels like the rider with the fewest obvious weaknesses for this route. That does not make him unbeatable, but it does make him the clearest all-round favourite.
Juan Ayuso gives Lidl-Trek a genuine winning card
Ayuso arrives as one of the strongest names in the race and one of the most natural fits for the route. He can time-trial well enough to avoid losing ground early, and he is sharp on the kind of punchy uphill finishes and repeated climbing efforts that often decide Itzulia.
That combination is close to ideal for a race like this. The Basque Country does not usually hand everything to the pure climbers or to the pure time triallists. Instead, it rewards riders who can do a bit of everything at a high level, then make the difference when the gradients kick up late in the stage. Ayuso fits that description very well.
The slight complication is that Lidl-Trek also bring depth around him. That can be a major strength, especially in a race where having two cards can create tactical pressure on rivals. But it can also create moments of hesitation if the hierarchy is tested on the road. Even so, Ayuso belongs in the very top group of contenders.
Photo Credit: GettyPrimož Roglič remains dangerous even without the freshest spring headline
Roglič is still one of the most reliable stage-race closers in the sport, and a route like this suits him very well. A hilly opening time trial followed by a string of sharp, awkward climbing stages is exactly the sort of profile where his experience and finishing instinct still count for a great deal.
He does not need a huge Alpine summit finish to become dangerous. In many ways, he is more threatening on broken terrain where the rhythm is constantly changing and the race becomes a series of decisions rather than one long effort uphill. Itzulia often feels like that. Riders are forced to respond again and again, and Roglič has spent years proving how good he is in those circumstances.
The one question is not whether he suits the race. He clearly does. It is whether some of the younger contenders arrive with a slightly fresher edge. That probably nudges him just behind the very top pick rather than taking him out of the main winning conversation.
Antonio Tiberi looks well-suited to a hard, steady week
Tiberi is one of the more interesting contenders because his profile is often less noisy than some of the bigger names around him. He is not always the rider who leaps off the page first, but stage races like Itzulia can reward exactly that sort of controlled, durable presence.
His attraction here is not that he looks like the most explosive rider in the field. It is that he can absorb difficult weeks well and usually stays in contention longer than more volatile rivals. That matters in the Basque Country, where consistency often proves just as valuable as a single brilliant stage.
If he handles the opening time trial well and limits any losses on the steepest ramps, he has the sort of steady GC shape that can become more dangerous by the final two stages than it appears on day one. He is not the easiest rider to pick as an outright winner, but as a podium contender he makes plenty of sense.
Photo Credit: GettyMikel Landa carries the Basque expectation, and the route suits that
Landa will always matter more in this race than his raw win probability alone might suggest. There is the obvious Basque connection, but there is also the simple fact that he looks comfortable on this sort of terrain. Itzulia is not about one huge mountain test. It is about narrow roads, repeated climbs, awkward rhythm changes and constant stress.
That has suited Landa for much of his career. He understands these roads, reads this sort of racing well, and tends to feel more at home in broken, tactical mountain stages than in cleaner, more controlled race environments.
The question is less about suitability and more about whether he still has the sharpest possible finishing edge against the strongest younger riders in this field. That probably makes him more of a realistic podium threat than the single most likely winner, but local knowledge and instinct count for a lot in Itzulia. That keeps him firmly relevant.
Paul Seixas may be the most exciting wildcard
Seixas is not really an unknown anymore, but he is still the rider in this race with the most obvious upward momentum. He already looks capable of competing across a high-level week-long stage race, and that matters because Itzulia exposes riders who are only good in flashes.
Why he fits this race is not difficult to see. He is explosive, aggressive and comfortable in broken race situations, all of which tend to matter in the Basque Country. The bigger question is not whether he can win a stage. It is whether he can stay locked in for the entire week against riders who are slightly more established in GC management.
That uncertainty is exactly what makes him dangerous. If the race becomes especially chaotic, or if the biggest favourites hesitate around him because they are focused on one another, Seixas has the profile to take advantage very quickly. He may not be the safest pick, but he is certainly one of the most interesting ones.
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Photo Credit: Getty
The next tier could still shape the race
Skjelmose is the most obvious name just outside the front rank because he is strong enough to win a race like this if everything lines up well, even if Ayuso is likely to be Lidl-Trek’s first card. Ben Healy is another rider who could animate several stages, especially the more aggressive medium-mountain days, though the overall might ask for slightly more control than he naturally prefers.
Cian Uijtdebroeks, Pello Bilbao, Ion Izagirre, Julian Alaphilippe and Jarno Widar all add tactical depth to the race too. Some of them may be more likely to target stages than the final general classification, but that does not stop them from shaping how the week unfolds.
That matters because Itzulia is often won not only by the strongest rider, but by the rider who handles the mess best. Stages break apart in odd places, descents matter, and short climbs can create larger gaps than expected. A race like that always gives the second tier room to disrupt the script.
Prediction
On balance, Del Toro looks like the best all-round pick. He brings the freshest combination of form, confidence and week-long GC control, and this route looks built for riders who can handle every day at a high level rather than rely on one single decisive mountain finish.
Ayuso feels like the closest challenger, with Roglič still too proven to ignore and Seixas the rider most capable of breaking the expected hierarchy. Tiberi and Landa then sit just behind as riders who make a lot of sense for the podium, even if they are not the first names most people will jump to.
So the safest short list is Del Toro, Ayuso and Roglič, with Tiberi, Landa and Seixas just behind. But in true Itzulia fashion, the route looks hard enough and awkward enough that the final podium may depend as much on resilience and positioning as on pure climbing strength.
