The Tour moves inland from the flatlands of Flanders and into more broken terrain as the peloton travels from Amiens to Rouen. While the race won’t touch any cobblestones this time, it will pass through towns steeped in literary and architectural history – from Jules Verne’s Amiens to Claude Monet’s Rouen. And unlike the sleepy sprint finish we saw the last time Rouen hosted a stage in 2012, this year’s approach is anything but dull.
Stage four is packed with potential, especially in the final third. What begins as a gentle day south-west through Normandy becomes increasingly nervy and lumpy after the 120km mark. Five categorised climbs are bunched into the final 50km, with the sting in the tail coming on the steep Rampe Saint-Hilaire just 5km from the line.
Final climbs shape a tactical finish
Unlike the straight-up bunch sprints of stages one and three, this finale will be defined by short, sharp climbs. The Côte Jacques Anquetil (cat. 4) opens the sequence, before the Côte de Belbeuf (cat. 3) and Côte de la Grand’Mare (cat. 4) soften the legs further. The key effort comes at 162km: Rampe Saint-Hilaire (0.8km at 10.6%) is both steep and well-placed for explosive riders to go clear.
Even the run-in to Rouen isn’t flat. The final 500m kicks up at 5%, before easing slightly on the finishing straight. Whether a lone attacker, small group or punchy sprinter wins will depend entirely on how hard the climbs are raced and which teams are willing to control the day.
Favourites
If there’s a script for this type of finish, Mathieu van der Poel usually writes it. Already a winner on stage two and currently in yellow, the Dutchman thrives on terrain like this – rolling roads, punchy climbs and a slightly uphill drag to the line. With Jasper Philipsen now out injured, Alpecin-Deceuninck will be fully committed to giving Van der Poel another shot at victory.
Tadej Pogačar is another obvious threat. The Slovenian was the fastest GC rider on stage two’s uphill finish and won’t hesitate to attack late, especially with João Almeida, Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez at his disposal.
Jonas Vingegaard and Wout van Aert also looked lively on Sunday and are both capable of playing a role depending on how the finale develops. Visma-Lease a Bike could even unleash Matteo Jorgenson, who has the punch and engine to survive the climbs and kick to the line.
Beyond the GC riders, Remco Evenepoel, Julian Alaphilippe, Romain Grégoire, Oscar Onley, and Thibau Nys all fit the mould of riders who can light up the finale. Ben Healy and Mattias Skjelmose are long-range threats if the pace drops and the race fragments early.
Don’t expect many sprinters to feature here – Biniam Girmay might be the only one versatile enough to hang on, but even for him it could be a stretch given the gradients and repeated efforts.
What’s on offer
- Date: Tuesday, 8th July
- Distance: 174km
- Start/Finish: Amiens – Rouen
- Sprints: Saint-Adrien (km 143.3)
- Climbs:
- Côte Jacques Anquetil (cat. 4, km 128.2)
- Côte de Belbeuf (cat. 3, km 148.7)
- Côte de la Grand’Mare (cat. 4, km 154.4)
- Rampe Saint-Hilaire (cat. 3, km 162.1)
Prediction
Expect Mathieu van der Poel to double up in Rouen. The terrain, the finish and the absence of Philipsen all tilt the odds further in his favour. If he’s anywhere near the front after the Rampe Saint-Hilaire, few will be able to match his final punch to the line.
