When the flag drops in Durrës on Friday afternoon, it won’t be just a new Giro d’Italia that begins, it’s the start of Grand Tour season, with a race that promises suspense, shifting alliances and plenty of tactical intrigue.
After Tadej Pogačar’s demolition job last May, the 2025 edition feels like it will be altogether closer, messier, and more enthralling. Primož Roglič returns to defend his title in the colours of Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, but this time the target is firmly on his back. Juan Ayuso is ready for leadership at UAE Team Emirates-XRG, Richard Carapaz looks to roll back the years, while Adam Yates and Egan Bernal bring pedigree and quiet ambition. There’s no out-and-out favourite, and that’s the beauty of it.
Add a technical route, early time trial, gravel roads and a brutally mountainous final week, and we’re looking at a Giro that should be fought for every single day.
2025 Giro d’Italia GC Favourites
Roglič unfazed but under pressure
Primož Roglič arrives as the reigning champion, but the aura of inevitability that surrounded his 2023 win is a little dimmer this time. The Slovenian remains composed – even playfully defiant – but his early-season form and interrupted build-up suggest there are more question marks than usual.
“I’ve done my thing,” he said with a smile during the pre-race press conference in Tirana. “It should be enough – it has to be enough.”
That thing was a razor-thin GC win at Volta a Catalunya, where he managed to fend off Mattias Skjelmose by just eight seconds. He looked consistent, not dominant. Since then, he’s opted for altitude over racing miles. Illness forced him to skip Liège-Bastogne-Liège – a fact he dismissed lightly, but one that casts some doubt over his opening-week sharpness.
“You never know until you start racing,” he admitted when asked about his condition. “But I trust the work we’ve done. The goal is still the same.”
That goal is another maglia rosa, and the path begins in familiar terrain. Roglič won a time trial in the Giro as early as 2016, returned for a podium bid in 2019, and then finally conquered the race in 2023 with his unforgettable surge up Monte Lussari. That win came after years of near-misses and mechanical heartbreak, and it clearly still motivates him.
“I want to enjoy this Giro,” he said. “That’s something I’ve learned – don’t race with fear, just race.”
Tactically, his team is built to protect and support him deep into the mountains. Dani Martínez is his first climbing lieutenant, and also a GC fallback should Roglič falter. Martínez was 2nd at last year’s Tour de Suisse and offers a steadier climbing option than the punchier Slovenian. Jai Hindley, the 2022 Giro winner, is also on hand, potentially giving the team a three-pronged option, but realistically falling into line behind Roglič.
Whether his base work at altitude translates into third-week firepower will be the big test. And the gravel stage to Siena is one that even Roglič admitted makes him nervous.
“That one could be crazy,” he said of stage 9. “It’s not where you want to have a bad day.”
The Giro rarely follows the script, but if Roglič is still close heading into the final week, there are few riders better equipped to handle the pressure, terrain and unpredictability of the Italian high mountains.
Ayuso steps out of Pogačar’s shadow
This is Juan Ayuso’s race to lead – and perhaps to win. The 22-year-old Spaniard is no longer the prodigy waiting his turn; he’s the designated leader of UAE Team Emirates-XRG and is treating the Giro as a chance to define his own narrative.
“I would be disappointed not to finish on the podium,” he told La Gazzetta dello Sport. “But I want more than that.”
The formbook makes his ambitions credible. He was sharp at Tirreno-Adriatico, timing his GC effort perfectly to win ahead of Tiberi and Vlasov. His time trialling – a known weakness as a junior – is now one of his strengths. And unlike his previous Grand Tours, he enters this Giro without illness or injury interrupting his prep.
Alongside him is Adam Yates, officially a super-domestique, but more likely a GC co-leader if things get messy. Ayuso will do the talking in week one. Yates might have the louder voice in week three. Either way, UAE start with the most balanced squad.
For Adam Yates, this Giro is a little unexpected. UAE had always planned to back Ayuso, but Yates’ spring form – including the overall win at Tour de Romandie and a top-five at Paris-Nice – earned him a ticket.
“I’m here to support Juan, but I know what I can do in week three,” he said in Cycling Weekly. “It’s a long race. Things change.”
His crash in the Basque Country curtailed his prep slightly, but he looked comfortable in the UAE training camps and has experience on Italian roads few others can match. He’s not the flashiest rider in the peloton, but if the race explodes late, Yates can exploit fatigue better than most.
Photo Credit: RCSCarapaz quietly targets pink once again
Richard Carapaz isn’t making headlines – and that suits him just fine. There’s a quiet menace about the Ecuadorian when he’s under the radar, and that’s exactly where he sits heading into this Giro.
“He’s in the best shape since he joined the team,” said EF DS Juanma Gárate, speaking to El Universo. “We’ve targeted this from the start of the year.”
That targeting hasn’t included big spring results – his 10th at Volta a Catalunya is the only major placing – but Carapaz has been climbing consistently in smaller races and looks leaner than he did in early 2024. He’s also the only rider in this field who’s previously won the Giro (2019) and finished runner-up (2022). He knows how to suffer late, and his trademark accelerations could sting on stages like Siena (stage 9) or Sestriere (stage 20).
Support comes from Georg Steinhauser, an emerging German climber who impressed at the Tour of the Alps, and Alexander Cepeda, reliable in high-altitude battles. If the big names hesitate, Carapaz will not.
Derek Gee: from breakaway hero to GC outsider
Derek Gee was the breakout personality of the 2023 Giro, and he’s coming back with more than just ambition this time. His 2025 results show the evolution: no longer just attacking for airtime, Gee is riding for results.
“We’ve done the work,” he said at the Israel-Premier Tech team presentation. “Now it’s time to see what I can do when I really go for GC.”
That means measured efforts, no more wild stage-long attacks – unless the opportunity is perfect. He was 3rd at the Tour of the Alps and looked strong again at Tirreno, hanging with climbers he couldn’t touch a year ago. Time trialling has also improved, and with Jan Hirt and Jakob Fuglsang as lieutenants, Gee has the climbing support to survive the third week. A top-five finish is on the cards if nothing goes wrong.
Tiberi and the Italian hopes
Italy needs a new GC leader – and Antonio Tiberi might be it. The 23-year-old has matured rapidly since his breakthrough ride at the 2024 Giro, where he finished 5th overall and won the white jersey.
This year, Bahrain Victorious have built around him: Wout Poels, Santiago Buitrago, and Nikias Arndt form a strong core. Tiberi has climbed well all spring, most notably in Tirreno, where he lost only 36 seconds to Ayuso across five days. But the pressure is higher now. There are expectations and questions.
“My time trials have to improve,” he told Rai Sport. “If I lose too much on stages 2 and 10, it’s going to be hard to make that back.”
The good news? The mountains in week three suit him: long, steady climbs at altitude. If he arrives there within a minute or two of the podium, he’s a serious threat.
Photo Credit: GettyGC Wildcards, dark horses and mountain threats
Ben O’Connor aiming for consistency
Ben O’Connor enters the Giro with a strong Grand Tour pedigree, including a fourth-place finish in the 2024 edition. Now leading Jayco AlUla, he seeks to convert consistent performances into a podium finish.
Reflecting on his goals, O’Connor stated, “My ambitions are to stay aggressive, consistent, and hopefully one day change these fourth-place overall finishes at Grand Tours into overall podium placings”.
Despite a challenging Paris-Nice, where he slipped to 20th overall due to harsh weather conditions, O’Connor remains focused on the Giro. His experience and resilience make him a contender to watch.
Photo Credit: RCSThymen Arensman co-leading with Bernal
Thymen Arensman steps into a co-leadership role at Ineos Grenadiers alongside Egan Bernal. Having secured sixth place in previous Giro editions, Arensman aims to improve upon those results.
“The team wants me to do GC together with Egan, so let’s see if I can hopefully improve on two sixth places from past years,” Arensman shared.
His recent performance at the Tour of the Alps, where he finished second overall, demonstrates his readiness. Arensman’s steady climbing and time-trial abilities complement Bernal’s strengths, providing Ineos with strategic flexibility.
Egan Bernal, meanwhile, is making a meaningful return. Three years on from his Giro triumph and two years removed from a life-threatening crash, the Colombian is back in pink – or at least aiming for it one day. Not yet a podium threat, Bernal has nonetheless looked rejuvenated in 2025: a national title in Colombia, and top-10s at Catalunya and Tirreno. La Gazzetta suggested a top-10 GC is possible. A stage win would be the ultimate statement.
Michael Storer rising GC threat
Michael Storer has transitioned from a stage hunter to a legitimate GC contender. His victory at the 2025 Tour of the Alps showcased his climbing prowess and tactical acumen.
“Of course, I’m dreaming of the pink jersey, but let’s be realistic, it’s extremely hard to win this race,” Storer admitted. “I’ll be really happy as long as I do the best race I can, whether that puts me in the top 10, or the pink jersey, or I’m struggling to get through”.
Storer’s consistent performances and humility make him a dark horse for a top-five finish, especially if he maintains his current form.
Louis Meintjes veteran seeking impact
Louis Meintjes returns to the Giro with renewed motivation and form. After a solid showing at the Giro d’Abruzzo and an altitude training camp in Sierra Nevada, he feels prepared.
“My goal is to be active at the front of the race in various stages by getting into breakaways, and possibly to perform well in the general classification,” Meintjes explained.
While his previous Giro participations were less fruitful, Meintjes aims to leverage his experience and current condition to make a significant impact, whether through breakaways or a strong GC performance.
Photo Credit: GettySprints and stage wins: plenty to fight for
The battle for the points jersey and sprint stages could be one of the highlights of this year’s Giro, with several major names lining up.
Mads Pedersen, Danish all-rounder, eyeing ciclamino
Mads Pedersen enters the Giro as perhaps the most versatile sprinter in the peloton. With a Classics pedigree and a proven ability to handle challenging terrains, he’s targeting not just flat sprints but also the more arduous stages. Stage 1 is already on his radar, and he’ll be a serious threat whenever the bunch is thinned down.
“I think I’m strong enough to follow him,” Pedersen said when asked about chasing riders like Pogačar on cobbles earlier this year. That same self-belief carries over here. His goal is clear: win stages, but don’t rule out a serious tilt at the maglia ciclamino. Few riders in the bunch have his ability to score points across such a wide range of profiles.
Olav Kooij, the young gun returning strong
Olav Kooij returns to the Giro with momentum after overcoming injury to win a stage at Tirreno-Adriatico. That result confirmed his form and speed, and with a solid lead-out behind him, he’ll be one of the main names to beat on pure sprint days.
He doesn’t yet have a Grand Tour stage win, but the Giro presents a huge opportunity. His team has thrown its support behind him, and if he can stay upright and healthy, Kooij could well leave Italy with multiple stage wins. His top-end speed is among the best in the field.
Kaden Groves resilient Aussie sprinter with high hopes
Kaden Groves was one of the sprint stars of the 2023 Giro, and despite a quieter build-up this time, he’s still one of the fastest finishers here. He’s coming back from injury and skipped the Classics to focus on recovery and altitude work – but his ambitions remain the same.
“It’s going well. I’ve been able to prepare myself quite well for altitude,” he said before the race, though he acknowledged the lack of racing may leave him short in the early days. Even so, Groves is capable of winning against anyone, especially if the team nails the timing.
Photo Credit: GettySam Bennett the veteran rebuilding for glory
Sam Bennett comes into the Giro with four wins already this season – and with a rebuilt sprint after several seasons of frustration. He’s reworked his training, rethought his sprint mechanics, and regained the confidence that made him one of the best.
“I changed the training quite a bit,” he explained. “We realised it wasn’t speed I was missing, it was torque – so we built that back in.” The early-season victories suggest the changes have paid off. With a strong team behind him, Bennett is hungry for another Grand Tour stage win.
Tom Pidcock hunting stages as a wildcard
Tom Pidcock isn’t here for the GC – and he’s not pretending otherwise. But that makes him even more dangerous. Gravel, punchy climbs, reduced groups, solo moves – he’s capable of winning in several ways, and stage 9 over the Strade Bianche has his name written all over it.
“My goal is to win. To race hard every day, be there at the front, and enjoy it,” he said before the Giro. That mindset, plus his natural explosiveness, makes him a nightmare to control. Whether it’s from a break or off the front of the peloton, expect Pidcock to animate this race.
Photo Credit: GettyWout van Aert the comeback threat with unfinished business
Wout van Aert starts this Giro with tempered expectations – but only because he’s had to. After crashing hard at Dwars door Vlaanderen and fracturing his sternum, collarbone and ribs, his entire season was thrown into uncertainty. Originally targeting Milan-Sanremo and the Spring Classics, van Aert had to reset – and now the Giro is his new proving ground.
“I just want to enjoy racing again,” he said during pre-race media in Tirana. “Stage wins would be great. But the main goal is to come out of this race stronger than I go into it.”
That sounds modest, but no one doubts what he’s capable of. His return to racing has been cautious but steady, and his engine is one of the best in the peloton. Stage 9 to Siena is the big target – the gravel, the climbs, and the punchy finale play perfectly to his strengths. It’s essentially a long-form Strade Bianche, and van Aert is a former winner of that race. He’s downplayed ambitions, but that’s not the same as ruling them out.
What makes him so dangerous is his unpredictability. He’s not here for the GC. He’s not trying to ride for the maglia ciclamino. But he could win from a reduced bunch, a breakaway, or solo – and that gives him freedom. If the legs are there, he’ll be one of the few riders who could go toe-to-toe with the pure climbers on a stage like Siena, or upset the sprinters on a harder day.
For now, van Aert is still talking about process over result. But even at 90%, he’s a major factor, and if he races into form, watch for him in the third week too.
Main photo credit: RCS
